World Cup Semi Final Predictions

 Semi-Final Predictions

And then there were four. The top four ranked teams left. The top seeds. All playing off to win the biggest prize of all. Like in tennis when Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray would all make the semi-finals as tennis’s crème de la crème and fight it out. I did, of course, predict these semi-finalists. It’s not often you get predictions spot on, so when you do, it’s worth a mention. It’s also the first ever time since Fifa rankings were introduced that the top four ranked teams have made the semi-finals. Shocks usually happen. All four have had different paths to the final four in America. Let’s look at the games now.

France vs Spain

Tuesday’s match is between arguably the best two teams in the world. France, to my mind, have looked the best team in this tournament. Even if they don’t go on to win it, I’ll still argue they are the best side. Deschamps promised a more exciting and progressive style following their stodgy, inhibited performance at Euro 2024, and how France have delivered. Their attack has been lauded a lot, and quite rightly so, as all of them have looked devastating at different times during the tournament. They’re the only team who have managed a level of cohesion and sustained threat during the tournament. Manu Koné in midfield has provided a solid anchor next to the underrated Rabiot. How do you stop this French team and their attack? Probably by keeping the ball away from them. That leads us nicely, then, to their opponent, Spain.

If there’s a team who can keep the ball, it is Spain. No team is better than them at doing that, as they have the highest average possession of any team in the tournament. Spain’s DNA is to have the ball, to pass the ball and to control their opponent. No one has epitomised that more than Rodri in midfield, who has looked closer to his 2024 Ballon d’Or self. Whilst Spain have had control in all their games, they’ve lacked a little bit of flair and penetration in the final third. I highlighted before the tournament that they should be one of the top teams, but whether they win it will depend on the fitness of their difference-makers in Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the flanks. Yamal has not been at his fluent best as he’s getting back to full fitness, and Williams’ minutes have largely come from the bench. Mikel Merino has emerged as a game-changer for Spain, and so France will have to watch his box runs closely.

A prediction? It’s a battle between the best attack and the best defence at this World Cup, so which one will prevail? France, for me. I think France’s attack will get the job done. Too much talent, flair and variety will be too much for Spain, whose own attack has looked fairly blunt this tournament.

France to progress.

Argentina vs England

If the first semi-final is more of a purist affair, this one has the X-factor. Argentina vs England for a place in the World Cup final. Not only a footballing rivalry that is amongst the fiercest in international football, but a political rivalry too, though I’ll not delve into that. A game for the ages.

But how about the modern age, 2026? Well, as mentioned earlier, these are the two teams ranked third and fourth in the FIFA World Rankings. Whilst France and Spain look a purer footballing spectacle, this war will be won in the trenches.

Firstly, Argentina are the holders and have the air of a winning team. They have a talisman in Lionel Messi, a never-say-die attitude, and are getting the run of the green when it comes to refereeing and VAR decisions. They’re arguably not as impressive as their 2022 selves but, nevertheless, will not be beaten easily (if at all). Scaloni made tactical and personnel tweaks in 2022 that propelled Argentina to glory. Yet in America, he’s been found wanting in that department. He’s been reluctant to switch up the old guard that have brought him so much success, and who can blame him? Either one of the younger talents, Nico Paz and Giuliano Simeone, could add some freshness and energy to a team that looks old and a little worn. Lionel Messi is still the main man and has shone in this tournament at the ripe old age of 39. Whilst Messi is in this form, and in this team, you’re a brave man to write them off.

Now, for England. It’s been a tournament of ups and downs. Have we been at our best? No. But then, what is our best? When have we been at our best in recent years? Recent voyages to World Cup semi-finals and European finals have often seen England look like we have in the US: stodgy, inconsistent and a little lost at times. Yet, this tournament feels different. Wins are credited to mentality and now, crucially, to a manager that isn’t seen as holding the team back (like Southgate’s critics argue), but instead to a guy who is enforcing a winning mentality on the team. Tuchel is a winner, and Southgate wasn’t, and as harsh as that sounds, it’s very blunt and factual. Can that be enough? Who knows. The world’s best have turned up at this tournament, and that’s certainly true of Harry Kane and particularly Jude Bellingham. There was talk of him not starting and the rebuttal would often be, “Well he has to start, he’s Jude Bellingham.” Not a truer word spoken. Bellingham has driven England at this World Cup and has performed at the highest level of an England player at a tournament in my lifetime. Can he and Kane drag England to World Cup glory?

Neither team is the favourite for the tournament. Neither team is coherent and neither team looks all that good. But both teams know how to win. Both teams have world-class stars dragging them through games. Can that be enough? It will be enough to win tomorrow. Can that win a World Cup though? We will, I guess, find out come Sunday evening.

A prediction? Messi and Álvarez vs Kane and Jude. A team game, decided by individuals, perhaps. England do, slightly, look more of a team and that they have more to give. For that reason, I’m backing Jude. I’m backing Tuchel. I’m backing England.

England to progress.